Lining Up
Well - it's that time...if I wait much longer to make a prediction I could face accusations that I just based what I thought on the experts and there's certainly a lot of them. I can tell you without hesitation who I want to win. I WANT an all New Zealand final and THAT means - Crusaders and Blues win this weekend and then both win next weekend. But I'm not going to go there yet.
Let's look at how the match ups this weekend break down - player for player. First - The Blues verses The Waratahs. The Blues are listed first and the Waratahs are listed second and italisized. I have bolded the player who I think is the stronger player between the two. Now...understand that the Waratahs have been one of the least watched teams for me and they did this stupid thing with their line up where they alphabetized their 24 players for the weekend rather than by position. If there's a star beside their name...it's a guess.
1. Charlie Faumailina / Benn Robinson
2. Keven Mealamu / Bernard Foley
3. John Afoa / Kane Douglas *
4. Anthony Boric /Pat O'Conner
5. Ali Williams / Sitaleki Timani
6. Jerome Kaino / Dean Mumm
7. Luke Braid / Phil Waugh
8. Peter Saili / Dave Dennis
9. Alby Mathewson / Luke Burgess
10. Stephen Brett / Sosene Anesi *
11. Lachie Munro / Atieli Pakalani
12. Luke McAlister / Tom Carter
13. Bensen Stanley / Ryan Cross
14. Joe Rokocoko / Lachie Turner
15. Jared Payne / Kurtley Beale
16. McCartney / Chris Alcock
17. Mailau / Josh Holmes
18. Lowrey / Ben Batger
19. Daniel Braid / Paddy Ryan
20. Smylie / Elvis Taione
21. Stanley / Hugh Perrett
22. Stowers / Brendan McKibban
So as you can see...it's pretty even. I think that overall the Tahs have a better back three whereas there isn't a comparison for the Blues' front row...even tight five. I've marked Dean Mumm has being better than Jerome Kaino...that's only marginally. When Kaino has good days - he has great days. Mumm is just an incredibly consistent rugby player. I also think that a couple of other key players that could decide a game would be the match ups between Luke McAlister and Tom Carter. Luke has had an incredibly volatile season between his kicking and overall playing. I actually think that he's put himself in a position with the All Blacks where he's replaceable on the bench. The other match up is on the wing between Rokocoko and Turner. Big Joe is a heavy hitter with a quick step against a quick, elusive runner in Turner.
The result (I'm terrible at predicting scores)...Blues (29) vs. Waratahs (27) - but that's assuming that Luke McAlister's kicking is ON. I believe that kicking will determine the result of this game.
Game 2...Crusaders vs. the Sharks
Again - here's the break down by position. The Crusaders are listed first, the Sharks second and slanted.
1. Wyatt Crockett / Tendai Mtwawarira (The Beast)
2. Corey Flynn / Bismarck DuPlessis
3. Owen Franks / Jannie DuPlessis
4. Brad Thorn / Gerhard Mostert
5. Sam Whitelock / Alistair Hargreaves
6. George Whitelock / Keegan Daniel
7. Matt Todd / Jean Deysel
8. Kieren Ried / Ryan Kankowski
9. Andy Ellis / Charl Mcleod
10. Dan Carter / Fredrick Michalak
11. Zac Guildford / Lwazi Mvovo
12. Sonny Bill Williams / Meyer Bosman
13. Robbie Fruean / Stefan Terblanche
14. Sean Maitland / JP Pieterson
15. Tom Marshall / Patrick Lambie
16. Quentin MacDonald / John Smit
17. Ben Franks / Wiehaln Herbst
18. Luke Romano / Ross Skeate
19. Jonathan Poff / Willem Alberts
20. Kahn Fotauli'i /Mercel Coetzee
21. Matt Berquist / Adrian Jacobs
22. Ryan Crotty or Ward / Louis Ludik
I tried really hard to be fair in the breakdown. I have mentioned that Bismarck DuPlessis is (aside from Keven Mealamu) one of my more favourite hookers. So that wasn't a stretch - besides - I'm not a huge fan of Corey "Meathead" Flynn, even though he has been playing a little better. I still don't like thinking of him being Keven's back up come the World Cup. But I don't see a better option out there. John Smit is getting old...real old. He went from the Shark's captain to the bench in one fail swoop. I don't know if he said something wrong in practice but he pretty much stayed on the bench for the rest of the season. Luckily for us - the Crusaders know that they can trust their bench. There have been enough injuries to the headliners this season that the bench has been tested and their depth and character has come through. Look to see them used in the game and to see the team finish well.
Our (the Crusaders) 9-10-12-13 connection is so strong and Zac Guilford...though I can't get over his crowfoot run - runs like the fricking wind. So as long as SBW hits hard and doesn't land on that hip of his - our backline should crush theirs. Terblanche is surprisingly threatening. He's a smart player but I just don't know if he can compete with SBW or Fruean's physicality. We'll see, I guess.
The only reason why I didn't mark Sean Maitland vs. his match because I just don't know how he'll be back from so many weeks off. I do fancy him over Pieterson...Peiterson has speed on him but he has a tendency to run straight lines so he's easy to beat. My only concern is with Patrick Lambie. He's good.
But the final result? The Crusaders. They have too much depth and their frontliners are utter class. I just don't think that the Sharks have it in them across the field to win. Here it is: Crusaders over the Sharks: 33-18.
Let's look at how the match ups this weekend break down - player for player. First - The Blues verses The Waratahs. The Blues are listed first and the Waratahs are listed second and italisized. I have bolded the player who I think is the stronger player between the two. Now...understand that the Waratahs have been one of the least watched teams for me and they did this stupid thing with their line up where they alphabetized their 24 players for the weekend rather than by position. If there's a star beside their name...it's a guess.
1. Charlie Faumailina / Benn Robinson
2. Keven Mealamu / Bernard Foley
3. John Afoa / Kane Douglas *
4. Anthony Boric /Pat O'Conner
5. Ali Williams / Sitaleki Timani
6. Jerome Kaino / Dean Mumm
7. Luke Braid / Phil Waugh
8. Peter Saili / Dave Dennis
9. Alby Mathewson / Luke Burgess
10. Stephen Brett / Sosene Anesi *
11. Lachie Munro / Atieli Pakalani
12. Luke McAlister / Tom Carter
13. Bensen Stanley / Ryan Cross
14. Joe Rokocoko / Lachie Turner
15. Jared Payne / Kurtley Beale
16. McCartney / Chris Alcock
17. Mailau / Josh Holmes
18. Lowrey / Ben Batger
19. Daniel Braid / Paddy Ryan
20. Smylie / Elvis Taione
21. Stanley / Hugh Perrett
22. Stowers / Brendan McKibban
So as you can see...it's pretty even. I think that overall the Tahs have a better back three whereas there isn't a comparison for the Blues' front row...even tight five. I've marked Dean Mumm has being better than Jerome Kaino...that's only marginally. When Kaino has good days - he has great days. Mumm is just an incredibly consistent rugby player. I also think that a couple of other key players that could decide a game would be the match ups between Luke McAlister and Tom Carter. Luke has had an incredibly volatile season between his kicking and overall playing. I actually think that he's put himself in a position with the All Blacks where he's replaceable on the bench. The other match up is on the wing between Rokocoko and Turner. Big Joe is a heavy hitter with a quick step against a quick, elusive runner in Turner.
The result (I'm terrible at predicting scores)...Blues (29) vs. Waratahs (27) - but that's assuming that Luke McAlister's kicking is ON. I believe that kicking will determine the result of this game.
Game 2...Crusaders vs. the Sharks
Again - here's the break down by position. The Crusaders are listed first, the Sharks second and slanted.
1. Wyatt Crockett / Tendai Mtwawarira (The Beast)
2. Corey Flynn / Bismarck DuPlessis
3. Owen Franks / Jannie DuPlessis
4. Brad Thorn / Gerhard Mostert
5. Sam Whitelock / Alistair Hargreaves
6. George Whitelock / Keegan Daniel
7. Matt Todd / Jean Deysel
8. Kieren Ried / Ryan Kankowski
9. Andy Ellis / Charl Mcleod
10. Dan Carter / Fredrick Michalak
11. Zac Guildford / Lwazi Mvovo
12. Sonny Bill Williams / Meyer Bosman
13. Robbie Fruean / Stefan Terblanche
14. Sean Maitland / JP Pieterson
15. Tom Marshall / Patrick Lambie
16. Quentin MacDonald / John Smit
17. Ben Franks / Wiehaln Herbst
18. Luke Romano / Ross Skeate
19. Jonathan Poff / Willem Alberts
20. Kahn Fotauli'i /Mercel Coetzee
21. Matt Berquist / Adrian Jacobs
22. Ryan Crotty or Ward / Louis Ludik
I tried really hard to be fair in the breakdown. I have mentioned that Bismarck DuPlessis is (aside from Keven Mealamu) one of my more favourite hookers. So that wasn't a stretch - besides - I'm not a huge fan of Corey "Meathead" Flynn, even though he has been playing a little better. I still don't like thinking of him being Keven's back up come the World Cup. But I don't see a better option out there. John Smit is getting old...real old. He went from the Shark's captain to the bench in one fail swoop. I don't know if he said something wrong in practice but he pretty much stayed on the bench for the rest of the season. Luckily for us - the Crusaders know that they can trust their bench. There have been enough injuries to the headliners this season that the bench has been tested and their depth and character has come through. Look to see them used in the game and to see the team finish well.
Our (the Crusaders) 9-10-12-13 connection is so strong and Zac Guilford...though I can't get over his crowfoot run - runs like the fricking wind. So as long as SBW hits hard and doesn't land on that hip of his - our backline should crush theirs. Terblanche is surprisingly threatening. He's a smart player but I just don't know if he can compete with SBW or Fruean's physicality. We'll see, I guess.
The only reason why I didn't mark Sean Maitland vs. his match because I just don't know how he'll be back from so many weeks off. I do fancy him over Pieterson...Peiterson has speed on him but he has a tendency to run straight lines so he's easy to beat. My only concern is with Patrick Lambie. He's good.
But the final result? The Crusaders. They have too much depth and their frontliners are utter class. I just don't think that the Sharks have it in them across the field to win. Here it is: Crusaders over the Sharks: 33-18.
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