And then there were Four
All things
considered - three out of four for guessing the semi-finalists isn't
that bad. I was betting on Ireland...I'm guessing so was the rest of the
world. But really, what's the World Cup if there aren't some upsets and
surprises. I'm not going to lie - I'm nervous about this weekend.
Australia and New Zealand has so much riding on it - it's not even
funny. I doubt my ability to stay sane when watching it and if the All
Blacks lose? I won't even go there.
Before I get into my predictions - I just want to say that I don't think it takes a genius to look at which teams suffered the most injuries and have called in the most players as the tournament has progressed as the southern hemisphere teams (Australia, South Africa, New Zealand). I have to wonder if running an extra long SuperXV season, backed onto a Tri-Nations tournament, which only concluded 5 weeks before the Rugby World Cup started might have been too much rugby for our south hemi teams. I think in my early years of playing I never could have imagined thinking such a thing but there was a year when I played for the Pronghorns, Alberta, club, U23 National team, and back to the Pronghorns in a year and I could have not tackled someone for 5 years and it would have been too soon - and I'm an amateur athlete. These guys are paid to play so the mental burn-out is not so much a factor but that much rugby takes a toll. Sure Dan Carter's injury was a "freak" accident but if you start looking at all of the niggles (I hate that word...hate it - but it does seem to be fitting as to what is going around some of our teams) - it is pretty easy math to figure out...
Drew Mitchell - dislocated ankle (SuperXV), pulled/torn hammy (RWC)
Digby Ioane - concussion (SuperXV), broken thumb (RWC)
Richie McCaw - broken foot (Fall Tri-Nations, SuperXV, Summer Tri-Nations, RWC)
Colin Slade - Broken Jaw (Fall Tri-Nation, SuperXV), torn groin (RWC)
Dan Carter - Torn groin (RWC)
Sitiveni Sivivatu - Broken eye socket (summer Tri-Nations)
Frans Steyn - Shoulder (RWC)
3/4 of the SA team during the summer Tri-Nations
Kieren Ried - everything...at all times.
Andy Ellis - Broken thumb (SuperXV)
Isreal Dagg - pulled hammy (SuperXV, RWC)
Cory Jane - Compound dislocated finger (summer Tri-Nations), concussion (RWC)
Rob Brown - Knee (Summer Tri-Nations)
Now I realize that some of those players have come back to play during the world cup and some of those injuries can't be prevented regardless of how much you play or not but there is not an area of the world in which injuries are plaguing teams like they are in the south - where the team that will show up this weekend looks like a picked through fragment of team that should be showing up. I think the IRB should look at which tournaments can take place before the World Cup so that we can all be sure that we're going to see healthy athletes partake.
PREDICTIONS!!
Wales vs. France
What am I going say? France? Not likely. I wouldn't pick France if I wanted to. After a victory to Ireland, Wales won't stop for France. There is too much fire in that camp to slow down for a little Bleu. Look to see Wales dominate in set piece and with that solid platform - I think Wales will play a territory game (lots of kicking) so they can...wait for it...do more set piece. I think if France can get Wales in their own half and committing penalties - they have a chance. France will need to rack up the penalty points to compete.
I still think Wales will come out on top. Wales by 10.
Australia vs. All Blacks
I don't think I could even say that Australia is going to come out on top EVEN if it were to be true. I just can't think like that. It's like admitting that Canada could ever actually lose the gold medal in hockey at the Olympics. That isn't to say that the All Blacks are going to have one heck of an uphill battle - especially when you consider all of the injuries. First Dan, then Colin Slade, and then they call up my most hated player in New Zealand (more over than Meathead)...Duck (Stephen Donald). Like I have mentioned before here...I was one of the naysayers and I can't take it back. Aaron Cruden is the man and I just pray that he doesn't get injured. But now - the rumormill has Richie McCaw possibly out for the weekend and Matt Todd has been training with the All Blacks. It's all unconfirmed but it has most of us chopping at the bit...is Captain Kiwi really injured? Is the niggle in his foot more than a niggle?
Injuries aside - we're going to assume that Cruden is at 10 and McCaw is at 7. I think a lot of things will hinge on Quade Cooper - public enemy #1 in New Zealand. You can expect more boos than ever...I think every Springbok fan will be taking part in that this weekend too. If Cooper decides to kick...we'll hammer the Wobblies - mostly because that's what he sucks at. If he decides to play for himself and run it ... well, two things could happen. The Wobblies will find some openings and Cooper will get completely smashed. I think teams around have learned from his playing style - Kiwis more than most. Why do you think Cooper kicked so much last weekend? He knew that Morne Steyn was going to have him for lunch. I think Cruden is fast enough to eat for breakfast and if not - certainly Richie and Kaino will have a few memos for Cooper to read while laying on the grass.
I think the trouble points might be James O'Conner and Wil Genia. We have the back row and a scrum-half on fire that will answer to that.
In the end? All Blacks by 5.
Before I get into my predictions - I just want to say that I don't think it takes a genius to look at which teams suffered the most injuries and have called in the most players as the tournament has progressed as the southern hemisphere teams (Australia, South Africa, New Zealand). I have to wonder if running an extra long SuperXV season, backed onto a Tri-Nations tournament, which only concluded 5 weeks before the Rugby World Cup started might have been too much rugby for our south hemi teams. I think in my early years of playing I never could have imagined thinking such a thing but there was a year when I played for the Pronghorns, Alberta, club, U23 National team, and back to the Pronghorns in a year and I could have not tackled someone for 5 years and it would have been too soon - and I'm an amateur athlete. These guys are paid to play so the mental burn-out is not so much a factor but that much rugby takes a toll. Sure Dan Carter's injury was a "freak" accident but if you start looking at all of the niggles (I hate that word...hate it - but it does seem to be fitting as to what is going around some of our teams) - it is pretty easy math to figure out...
Drew Mitchell - dislocated ankle (SuperXV), pulled/torn hammy (RWC)
Digby Ioane - concussion (SuperXV), broken thumb (RWC)
Richie McCaw - broken foot (Fall Tri-Nations, SuperXV, Summer Tri-Nations, RWC)
Colin Slade - Broken Jaw (Fall Tri-Nation, SuperXV), torn groin (RWC)
Dan Carter - Torn groin (RWC)
Sitiveni Sivivatu - Broken eye socket (summer Tri-Nations)
Frans Steyn - Shoulder (RWC)
3/4 of the SA team during the summer Tri-Nations
Kieren Ried - everything...at all times.
Andy Ellis - Broken thumb (SuperXV)
Isreal Dagg - pulled hammy (SuperXV, RWC)
Cory Jane - Compound dislocated finger (summer Tri-Nations), concussion (RWC)
Rob Brown - Knee (Summer Tri-Nations)
Now I realize that some of those players have come back to play during the world cup and some of those injuries can't be prevented regardless of how much you play or not but there is not an area of the world in which injuries are plaguing teams like they are in the south - where the team that will show up this weekend looks like a picked through fragment of team that should be showing up. I think the IRB should look at which tournaments can take place before the World Cup so that we can all be sure that we're going to see healthy athletes partake.
PREDICTIONS!!
Wales vs. France
What am I going say? France? Not likely. I wouldn't pick France if I wanted to. After a victory to Ireland, Wales won't stop for France. There is too much fire in that camp to slow down for a little Bleu. Look to see Wales dominate in set piece and with that solid platform - I think Wales will play a territory game (lots of kicking) so they can...wait for it...do more set piece. I think if France can get Wales in their own half and committing penalties - they have a chance. France will need to rack up the penalty points to compete.
I still think Wales will come out on top. Wales by 10.
Australia vs. All Blacks
I don't think I could even say that Australia is going to come out on top EVEN if it were to be true. I just can't think like that. It's like admitting that Canada could ever actually lose the gold medal in hockey at the Olympics. That isn't to say that the All Blacks are going to have one heck of an uphill battle - especially when you consider all of the injuries. First Dan, then Colin Slade, and then they call up my most hated player in New Zealand (more over than Meathead)...Duck (Stephen Donald). Like I have mentioned before here...I was one of the naysayers and I can't take it back. Aaron Cruden is the man and I just pray that he doesn't get injured. But now - the rumormill has Richie McCaw possibly out for the weekend and Matt Todd has been training with the All Blacks. It's all unconfirmed but it has most of us chopping at the bit...is Captain Kiwi really injured? Is the niggle in his foot more than a niggle?
Injuries aside - we're going to assume that Cruden is at 10 and McCaw is at 7. I think a lot of things will hinge on Quade Cooper - public enemy #1 in New Zealand. You can expect more boos than ever...I think every Springbok fan will be taking part in that this weekend too. If Cooper decides to kick...we'll hammer the Wobblies - mostly because that's what he sucks at. If he decides to play for himself and run it ... well, two things could happen. The Wobblies will find some openings and Cooper will get completely smashed. I think teams around have learned from his playing style - Kiwis more than most. Why do you think Cooper kicked so much last weekend? He knew that Morne Steyn was going to have him for lunch. I think Cruden is fast enough to eat for breakfast and if not - certainly Richie and Kaino will have a few memos for Cooper to read while laying on the grass.
I think the trouble points might be James O'Conner and Wil Genia. We have the back row and a scrum-half on fire that will answer to that.
In the end? All Blacks by 5.
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